Invest now or wait? Separate the decision from the prediction

What are you really waiting for?

“Should I invest now?” sounds like a market-timing question, but the real concern is often different: the money may be needed soon, the investment may not be understood, or an immediate fall may feel unbearable.

Separate the decision from the prediction. A record high only means an index has passed its previous peak. It does not establish whether the underlying assets are attractively valued, whether prices will rise next, or whether the investment suits you.

Make three decisions in the right order

A good entry date cannot rescue an unsuitable product, a missing emergency reserve or money invested on too short a timeframe.

First decide whether the money is investable

MoneySense suggests setting aside money for daily needs, expected spending and emergencies before investing. Also account for debt repayments, insurance premiums and foreseeable family commitments.

Money needed within the next few years may have limited capacity for market losses. Keeping it accessible or using lower-risk choices can be appropriate; that is different from leaving genuinely long-term money uninvested indefinitely while waiting for a perfect price.

Choose the risk before the date

Match the investment mix to the goal, timeframe and both your ability and willingness to bear losses. Review concentration, diversification, product costs, liquidity and what could cause the investment to fall.

For a Singapore investor, exchange-rate movements can affect the SGD value of foreign investments. A US index is also not a complete portfolio, and its historical return should not be transferred to a fund, policy or other product with different holdings, costs and terms.

Three situations, three different starting points

Use a two-way regret test

Ask two questions before choosing an entry method:

1. If I invest and the market falls 20%, would I panic, sell or disrupt an important commitment?
2. If I wait and the market rises 20%, would I chase the price or abandon my plan?

The 20% figures are stress-test examples, not forecasts. If either outcome would push you into an impulsive decision, adjust the amount, investment mix or schedule until the plan is more manageable in both directions.

What one historical example can—and cannot—show

Schwab’s July 2025 study compared hypothetical investors who received US$2,000 at the start of every year from 2005 to 2024. The study reported these ending values:

The cash investor never entered stocks, so this does not prove that buying now always beats a defined wait-for-a-dip plan. It also does not prove that stocks suit your goal.

The example uses the US S&P 500, assumes reinvested dividends and interest, and excludes taxes and fees. Perfect timing and yearly peaks are known only with hindsight. This is a historical illustration, not a forecast or a product return.

Write the entry rules before the headlines change

Write down the amount, dates, investment mix, reserve to be retained and the circumstances that would justify a review. A market headline by itself should not rewrite the plan.

Connect the entry plan to the wider plan

If the money is for retirement, consider whether it sits inside or outside SRS and how future withdrawals may work. Read how to choose SRS investments.

If you already own a long-term investment product, review it before adding a new one. The guide to reviewing an older ILP explains how to compare guarantees, non-guaranteed values, costs and alternatives without making a rushed surrender decision.

For families, the amount available to invest comes after household continuity, healthcare and near-term commitments. See the financial planning guide for parents.

Where an adviser can help

DIY ETFs may suit people who want to select and manage their own investments. Advice can help connect investment choices to your wider goals, affordability and review process. Compare the scope and total costs of each route. Adviser-supported products should not be assumed to outperform an index or lower-cost alternatives.

Past performance does not guarantee future results. This article does not recommend buying the S&P 500 or any particular product today.